The University of North Florida released a poll on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2020, asking likely Florida voters about the presidential race and a variety of other issues. Here are their responses:
Related
Presidential Race
N=Number of respondents
As you may know, there is a presidential election coming up on November 3rd. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?
| Answer Choices | Florida Voters n=3,207 | Hispanic Oversample n=779 |
| You will definitely vote | 88% | 87% |
| You will probably vote | 2% | 4% |
| You will probably not vote | 1% | 2% |
| You will definitely not vote | <1% | 1% |
| Already voted | 9% | 6% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | – | – |
If you do vote, what method do you plan to use to vote in the upcoming November elections?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,799 | Hispanic Oversample n=691 |
| Vote in-person on election day | 29% | 24% |
| Vote early in-person | 29% | 26% |
| Vote by mail | 42% | 49% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% | 1% |
If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump for the Republican Party and Joe Biden for the Democratic Party, who would you vote for?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=3,134 | Hispanic Oversample n=744 | Voted for Trump in 2016 n=1,166 | Voted for Clinton in 2016 n=1,495 |
| Donald Trump, REP | 45% | 39% | 91% | 6% |
| Joe Biden, DEM | 51% | 54% | 7% | 93% |
| Someone Else | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 3% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters February[1] n=696 | Florida Likely Voters October n=3,134 |
| Donald Trump, REP | 45% | 45% |
| Joe Biden, DEM | 45% | 51% |
| Someone Else2 | – | 1% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 10% | 3% |
Do you agree or disagree that the results of the November presidential election will be fair and trustworthy?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=3,142 | Hispanic Oversample n=745 | Republican Likely Voters n=1,128 | Democrat Likely Voters n=1,397 |
| Strongly Agree | 34% | 39% | 17% | 51% |
| Somewhat Agree | 38% | 36% | 41% | 35% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 18% | 18% | 25% | 8% |
| Strongly Disagree | 10% | 6% | 16% | 6% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
How influential was the most recent presidential debate in your decision on who to vote for in the upcoming presidential election?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=3,142 | Hispanic Oversample n=745 |
| Very Influential | 16% | 26% |
| Somewhat Influential | 11% | 13% |
| Not Influential | 73% | 60% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% | 1% |
If the November 2020 general election were held today, and the following measures were on the ballot, how would you vote:
No. 1 Constitutional Amendment Article VI, Section 2
Citizenship Requirement to Vote in Florida Elections
This amendment provides that only United States Citizens who are at least eighteen years of age, a permanent resident of Florida, and registered to vote, as provided by law, shall be qualified to vote in a Florida election.
Because the proposed amendment is not expected to result in any changes to the voter registration process in Florida, it will have no impact on state or local government costs or revenue. Further, it will have no effect on the state’s economy.
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=3,091 | Hispanic Oversample n=727 |
| Yes | 78% | 80% |
| No | 18% | 18% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 2% | 2% |
No. 2 Constitutional Amendment Article X, Section 24
Raising Florida’s Minimum Wage
Raises minimum wage to $10.00 per hour effective October 30th, 2021. Each October 30th thereafter, minimum wage shall increase by $1.00 per hour until the minimum wage reaches $15.00 per hour on October 30th, 2026. From that point forward, future minimum wage increases shall revert to being adjusted annually for inflation starting October 30th, 2027.
State and local government costs will increase to comply with the new minimum wage levels.
Additional annual wage costs will be approximately $16 million in 2022, increasing to about $540 million in 2027 and thereafter. Government actions to mitigate these costs are unlikely to produce material savings. Other government costs and revenue impacts, both positive and negative, are not quantifiable.
THIS PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE A NET
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STATE BUDGET. THIS IMPACT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER TAXES OR A LOSS OF GOVERNMENT SERVICES IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN A BALANCED STATE BUDGET AS REQUIRED BY THE CONSTITUTION.
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=3,055 | Hispanic Oversample n=711 |
| Yes | 60% | 70% |
| No | 37% | 29% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 3% | 1% |
No. 3 Constitutional Amendment Article VI, Section 5
All Voters Vote in Primary Elections for State Legislature, Governor, and Cabinet
Allows all registered voters to vote in primaries for state legislature, governor, and cabinet regardless of political party affiliation. All candidates for an office, including party nominated candidates, appear on the same primary ballot. Two highest vote getters advance to general election. If only two candidates qualify, no primary is held and winner is determined in general election. Candidate’s party affiliation may appear on ballot as provided by law. Effective January 1, 2024.
It is probable that the proposed amendment will result in additional local government costs to conduct elections in Florida. The Financial Impact Estimating Conference projects that the combined costs across counties will range from $5.2 million to $5.8 million for each of the first three election cycles occurring in even-numbered years after the amendment’s effective date, with the costs for each of the intervening years dropping to less than $450,000. With respect to state costs for oversight, the additional costs for administering elections are expected to be minimal. Further, there are no revenues linked to voting in Florida. Since there is no impact on state costs or revenues, there will be no impact on the state’s budget. While the proposed amendment will result in an increase in local expenditures, this change is expected to be below the threshold that would produce a statewide economic impact.
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,994 | Hispanic Oversample n=684 |
| Yes | 58% | 67% |
| No | 36% | 26% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 6% | 7% |
No. 4 Constitutional Amendment Article XI, Sections 5 and 7
Voter Approval of Constitutional Amendments
Requires all proposed amendments or revisions to the state constitution to be approved by the voters in two elections, instead of one, in order to take effect. The proposal applies the current thresholds for passage to each of the two elections.
It is probable that the proposed amendment will result in additional state and local government costs to conduct elections in Florida. Overall, these costs will vary from election cycle to election cycle depending on the unique circumstances of each ballot and cannot be estimated at this time. The key factors determining cost include the number of amendments appearing for the second time on each ballot and the length of those amendments. Since the maximum state cost is likely less than $1 million per cycle but the impact cannot be discretely quantified, the change to the state’s budget is unknown. Similarly, the economic impact cannot be modelled, although the spending increase is expected to be below the threshold that would produce a statewide economic impact. Because there are no revenues linked to voting in Florida, there will be no impact on government taxes or fees.
THE FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THIS AMENDMENT CANNOT BE DETERMINED DUE TO AMBIGUITIES AND UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING THE AMENDMENT’S IMPACT.
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,943 | Hispanic Oversample n=665 |
| Yes | 41% | 45% |
| No | 52% | 47% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 7% | 8% |
No. 5 Constitutional Amendment Article VII, Section 4 and Article XII
Limitations on Homestead Property Tax Assessments; increased portability period to transfer accrued benefit
Proposing an amendment to the State Constitution, effective January 1, 2021, to increase, from 2 years to 3 years, the period of time during which accrued Save-Our-Homes benefits may be transferred from a prior homestead to a new homestead.
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,928 | Hispanic Oversample n=657 |
| Yes | 67% | 72% |
| No | 26% | 21% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 7% | 7% |
No. 6 Constitutional Amendment Article VII, Section 6 and Article XII
Ad Valorem Tax Discount for Spouses of Certain Deceased Veterans Who Had Permanent, Combat-Related Disabilities
Provides that the homestead property tax discount for certain veterans with permanent combatrelated disabilities carries over to such veteran’s surviving spouse who holds legal or beneficial title to, and who permanently resides on, the homestead property, until he or she remarries or sells or otherwise disposes of the property. The discount may be transferred to a new homestead property of the surviving spouse under certain conditions. The amendment takes effect January 1, 2021.
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,913 | Hispanic Oversample n=646 |
| Yes | 88% | 89% |
| No | 8% | 6% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 4% | 5% |
Below is a list of people, please select whether you approve or disapprove of the job each are doing.
President Donald Trump:
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,902 | Hispanic Oversample n=642 |
| Strongly Approve | 37% | 32% |
| Somewhat Approve | 9% | 8% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 3% | 6% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 50% | 53% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% |
Senator Rick Scott:
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,902 | Hispanic Oversample n=642 |
| Strongly Approve | 24% | 22% |
| Somewhat Approve | 21% | 21% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 13% | 15% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 40% | 39% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 3% | 4% |
Senator Marco Rubio:
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,902 | Hispanic Oversample n=642 |
| Strongly Approve | 22% | 24% |
| Somewhat Approve | 24% | 17% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 16% | 13% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 35% | 42% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 2% | 3% |
Governor Ron DeSantis:
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,902 | Hispanic Oversample n=642 |
| Strongly Approve | 34% | 27% |
| Somewhat Approve | 13% | 12% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 8% | 8% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 43% | 50% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 2% |
As you may have heard, President Trump has nominated Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. Which of the following scenarios would you like to see happen?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,897 | Hispanic Oversample n=639 |
| The Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett prior to the election on Nov. 3rd | 42% | 36% |
| The Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett after the election on November 3rd, but before the new Senate and President are sworn in in January | 5% | 4% |
| The person that wins the presidential election in November should nominate a justice and the newly elected Senate should confirm that candidate in January or February | 52% | 59% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% |
Do you think the federal government is doing too much to support the economy during the pandemic, not doing enough to support the economy during the pandemic, or is doing about the right amount?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,890 | Hispanic Oversample n=636 |
| Too Much | 9% | 9% |
| Not Enough | 61% | 66% |
| About Right | 29% | 24% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% |
Do you think the Florida state government is doing too much to support the economy during the pandemic, not doing enough to support the economy during the pandemic, or is doing about the right amount?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,890 | Hispanic Oversample n=636 |
| Too Much | 6% | 5% |
| Not Enough | 59% | 68% |
| About Right | 34% | 25% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% |
Do you think Florida is moving too slowly or too quickly to ease social distancing restrictions and reopen, or is it about right?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,884 | Hispanic Oversample n=635 |
| Too Quickly | 52% | 55% |
| Too Slowly | 16% | 17% |
| About Right | 32% | 28% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% | <1% |
What is a bigger concern for you, the public health impacts or the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters April[2] n=3,244 | Florida Likely Voters October n=2,884 | Hispanic Oversample n=635 |
| Public health impacts | 67% | 57% | 61% |
| Economic impacts | 31% | 43% | 39% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Do you agree or disagree that face masks work to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,884 | Hispanic Oversample n=635 |
| Strongly Agree | 63% | 68% |
| Somewhat Agree | 19% | 19% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 9% | 5% |
| Strongly Disagree | 10% | 8% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% | <1% |
Do you agree or disagree that black people and white people receive equal treatment from the police?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,882 | Hispanic Oversample n=635 |
| Strongly Agree | 24% | 27% |
| Somewhat Agree | 19% | 13% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 14% | 13% |
| Strongly Disagree | 42% | 46% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% |
Do you agree or disagree that Hispanic people and white people receive equal treatment from the police?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,882 | Hispanic Oversample n=635 |
| Strongly Agree | 25% | 27% |
| Somewhat Agree | 22% | 15% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 22% | 18% |
| Strongly Disagree | 31% | 38% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% |
Do you think the deaths of black people during encounters with the police are isolated incidents or signs of a broader problem of systemic racism?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,877 | Hispanic Oversample n=632 |
| Isolated incidents | 46% | 39% |
| Signs of a broader problem of systemic racism | 53% | 60% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 2% |
Thinking about how the immigration issue might affect your vote for major offices, would you –
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,877 | Hispanic Oversample n=632 | Born in the U.S. n=257 | Born outside the U.S. n=372 |
| Only vote for a candidate who shares your views on immigration | 22% | 25% | 27% | 23% |
| Consider a candidate’s position on immigration as just one of many important factors | 72% | 67% | 68% | 67% |
| Not see immigration as a major issue | 6% | 7% | 5% | 9% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
Do you support or oppose each of the following proposals:
Building a physical wall along the entire U.S.-Mexico border
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,875 | Hispanic Oversample n=632 | Born in the U.S. n=257 | Born outside the U.S. n=372 |
| Strongly Support | 38% | 28% | 24% | 33% |
| Somewhat Support | 11% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Somewhat Support | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| Strongly Support | 42% | 48% | 55% | 43% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 2% | – | 2% |
Allowing undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. the chance to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements over a period of time
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,875 | Hispanic Oversample n=632 | Born in the U.S. n=257 | Born outside the U.S. n=372 |
| Strongly Support | 52% | 57% | 63% | 53% |
| Somewhat Support | 26% | 24% | 19% | 29% |
| Somewhat Support | 9% | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| Strongly Support | 12% | 12% | 11% | 14% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% | 2% | – | 1.5% |
Closing federal immigration detention centers
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=2,875 | Hispanic Oversample n=632 | Born in the U.S. n=257 | Born outside the U.S. n=372 |
| Strongly Support | 34% | 40% | 49% | 33% |
| Somewhat Support | 20% | 15% | 9% | 21% |
| Somewhat Support | 18% | 17% | 14% | 19% |
| Strongly Support | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Survey Demographics
What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=3,142 | Hispanic Oversample n=745 |
| Less than High School Degree | 1% | 3% |
| High School Graduate | 13% | 12% |
| Some College | 57% | 54% |
| College Graduate | 18% | 18% |
| Postgraduate | 14% | 13% |
Thinking back to the 2016 Presidential Election, who did you vote for?
| Answer Choices | Florida Likely Voters n=3,111 | Hispanic Oversample n=738 |
| Hillary Clinton | 42% | 48% |
| Donald Trump | 42% | 32% |
| Someone Else | 3% | 3% |
| Didn’t vote | 12% | 17% |
| Age | Florida Likely Voters n=3,142 | Hispanic Oversample n=745 |
| 18-24 | 8% | 11% |
| 25-34 | 16% | 19% |
| 35-44 | 15% | 17% |
| 45-54 | 15% | 18% |
| 55-64 | 18% | 15% |
| 65 and older | 29% | 20% |
| Race | Florida Likely Voters n=3,142 |
| White (Not Hispanic) | 63% |
| Black (Not Hispanic) | 14% |
| Hispanic | 16% |
| Other | 8% |
| Hispanic [Only asked of Hispanic voters] | Hispanic Likely Voters n=745 |
| Colombian | 3% |
| Cuban | 6% |
| Mexican | 29% |
| Puerto Rican | 5% |
| Venezuelan | 19% |
| Something Else | 33% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 3% |
| Born in the U.S. | Hispanic Likely Voters n=745 |
| Yes | 50% |
| No | 49% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 1% |
| Sex | Florida Likely Voters n=3,142 | Hispanic Oversample n=745 |
| Male | 47% | 46% |
| Female | 53% | 54% |
| Survey Language | Florida Likely Voters n=3,142 | Hispanic Oversample n=745 |
| English | 98% | 86% |
| Spanish | 2% | 14% |
Methodology
The UNF Fall Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion
Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Thursday, October 1 through Saturday, October 4, 2020. The survey was administered through email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform. The sample frame was comprised of 3,142 registered likely voters in Florida, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were determined through a self-identified likelihood to vote, and 81% of respondents voted in the 2018 Florida General election. The email addresses used for this survey were sourced from the Florida’s Division of Elections October 2020 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among registered voters in the Florida voter file. Respondents who indicated that they would “definitely vote,” or “already voted” were included in the sample. An oversample of Hispanic voters across Florida were also included.
The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/-1.8 percentage points. Data were weighted by partisan registration, age, race, sex, education, and geography. Education weights were created from the Census’ 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) estimate for the percent of college-educated individuals in the state of Florida, approximately 29%. Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the October update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. Voters were also weighted by education and 2016 vote choice.
To ensure a representative sample of registered voters, the 10 Florida designated market areas were stratified. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate number of completed surveys from across the state. Due to the unique population of Miami-Dade County, it was separated to create 11 strata from the 10 designated media markets.
All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 26 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 1.3% response rate. This survey was directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.