Rob Harwick (left) and Chris Strickland. A photo of Tom Reynolds was unavailable at the time of this story’s publishing. IMAGE CREDIT: Photos via Reynolds & Hardwick campaigns.
By Bill Bortzfield/WJCT News
A new poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab and 103.9 FM WSOS finds 75% of registered St. Johns County voters haven’t decided who they will cast their ballot for to replace Sheriff David Shoar, who will be retiring at the end of his term.
St. Augustine Beach Police Chief Rob Hardwick, a Republican, had the most support at 13%, closely followed by fellow Republican Chris Strickland 12%. Strickland has served in various capacities with the St. Johns County Sheriff’s Office. Republican Keith Perniciaro polled under 1%, well outside of the survey’s plus or minus 5.5% margin of error.
The primary election for sheriff in St. Johns County will be held August 18.
Here are the full results of the poll, which also asked voters for an assessment of how St. Johns County Commissioners are doing:
Poll note: N= number
Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the St. Johns County Commissioners are doing?
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=313 |
| Strongly Approve | 22% |
| Somewhat Approve | 47% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 12% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 7% |
| Don’t Know | 12% |
If the August 2020 election for St. Johns County Sheriff were being held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=299 |
| Rob Hardwick | 13% |
| Keith Perniciaro | <1% |
| Chris Strickland | 12% |
| Don’t Know | 75% |
Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people or if you have never heard of them—Rob Hardwick
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=313 |
| Favorable | 22% |
| Unfavorable | 3% |
| Never heard of them | 59% |
| Don’t know | 16% |
Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people or if you have never heard of them—Chris Strickland
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=303 |
| Favorable | 19% |
| Unfavorable | 2% |
| Never heard of them | 64% |
| Don’t know | 16% |
Survey Demographics
What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
| Answer Choices | Florida Voters n=313 | Florida Voters n=307* |
| Less than high school | – | <1% |
| High school graduate | 15% | 15% |
| Some college | 35% | 35% |
| College graduate | 26% | 29% |
| Post-graduate degree | 24% | 21% |
What is your annual household income?
| Answer Choices | Florida Voters n=247 | Florida Voters n=246* |
| Less than $25,000 | 4% | 5% |
| $25,000 to $50,000 | 10% | 8% |
| $50,000 to $75,000 | 18% | 17% |
| $75,000 to $100,000 | 14% | 18% |
| More than $100,000 | 54% | 52% |
| Age | Florida Voters n=319 | Florida Voters n=309* |
| 18-24 | 1% | 1% |
| 25-34 | 3% | 3% |
| 35-44 | 7% | 7% |
| 45-54 | 15% | 15% |
| 55-64 | 24% | 24% |
| 65 and older | 51% | 50% |
| Race | Florida Voters n=319 | Florida Voters n=309* |
| White (Not Hispanic) | 96% | 96% |
| Black (Not Hispanic) | – | <1% |
| Hispanic | 2% | 2% |
| Other | 3% | 2% |
| Sex | Florida Voters n=319 | Florida Voters n=309* |
| Male | 50% | 50% |
| Female | 50% | 50% |
| Telephone | Florida Voters n=318 | Florida Voters n=309* |
| Landline | 32% | 32% |
| Cellphone | 68% | 68% |
*Indicates sample frame for questions Sheriff vote choice and Strickland favorability
Methodology
The UNF St. Johns County Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida in partnership WSOS 103.9 Radio Station Monday, Feb. 24 through Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m. each day. The sample frame was comprised of registered Republican Florida voters, 18 years of age or older. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the December update of the Florida voter file. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system.
The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 5.5 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cellphone was 32% to 68%, with less than 1% unidentified. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cellphone. Data were then weighted by age, race, sex, and education. Education weights were created from the December update of the Florida Voter File to match the active registered Republican likely voters in Florida for the percent of college-educated individuals in the state of Florida, approximately 29%. Sex, race, and age weights were also created from the December update of the Florida Voter File to match the active registered Republican likely voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. As a side note, an additional 210 surveys were conducted solely about the Sheriff’s race to correct for a typographical error in the original survey instrument.
All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 25 rake weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. In this case, respondents missing a response for any of the demographic information were given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 21% response rate. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.
Bill Bortzfield can be reached at bbortzfield@wjct.org, 904-358-6349 or on Twitter at @BortzInJax.