Democratic presidential candidates, Sen. Bernie Sanders,and former Vice President Joe Biden, talk before a the February Democratic presidential primary debate. Credit: Associated Press
Joe Biden is leading 66% to 22% in the race for the Florida Democratic presidential primary against Bernie Sanders in a poll of registered Florida voters released Thursday by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab. | Read the story
Full UNF Poll Results
Note: N= number
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Florida Democratic Primary election on March 17?
| Answer Choices | Florida Votes n=1,492 |
| You will definitely vote | 74% |
| You will probably vote | 6% |
| You will probably not vote | 2% |
| You will definitely not vote | 2% |
| Already voted | 16% |
Have you definitely decided whom you will vote for in the Florida primary, are you leaning toward someone, or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=1,185 |
| Definitely decided | 54% |
| Leaning towards someone | 16% |
| Still trying to decide | 29% |
| Don’t Know | 1% |
Florida Democratic presidential primary vote choice[1]
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=1,339 |
| Joe Biden | 66% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% |
| Bernie Sanders | 22% |
| Michael Bennet | – |
| Michael Bloomberg | 2% |
| Cory Booker | – |
| Pete Buttigieg | 1% |
| Julian Castro | – |
| John Delaney | – |
| Amy Klobuchar | <1% |
| Deval Patrick | – |
| Joe Sestak | – |
| Tom Steyer | – |
| Elizabeth Warren | 2% |
| Andrew Yang | 1% |
| Don’t Know | 7% |
| Answer Choices | 18-24 n=30 | 25-34 n=112 | 35-44 n=129 | 45-54 n=160 | 55-64 n=282 | 65+ n=627 |
| Joe Biden | 20% | 31% | 45% | 64% | 71% | 78% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | – | – | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Bernie Sanders | 77% | 63% | 40% | 23% | 18% | 10% |
| Don’t Know | 3% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 7% |
| Answer Choices | White n=774 | Black n=354 | Hispanic n=156 | Other n=53 |
| Joe Biden | 67% | 68% | 65% | 49% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | – | 1% | – |
| Bernie Sanders | 21% | 18% | 28% | 42% |
| Don’t Know | 4% | 12% | 3% | 9% |
| Answer Choices | Decided n=602 | Leaning n=186 | Still Deciding n=324 |
| Joe Biden | 73% | 74% | 55% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Bernie Sanders | 24% | 20% | 22% |
| Don’t Know | 1% | 3% | 20% |
What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=1,424 |
| Economy/Jobs/Unemployment | 8% |
| Education | 6% |
| Healthcare | 31% |
| Immigration | 4% |
| Environment | 12% |
| Social Security | 7% |
| Foreign Policy | 2% |
| Terrorism | 2% |
| Something Else | 5% |
| Coronavirus | 2% |
| Gun Policy | <1% |
| Donald Trump | 14% |
| Racism/Bigotry | 1% |
| All of the Above | 2% |
| Don’t Know | 4% |
What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?
| Answer Choices | Biden Supporters n=880 | Sanders Supporters n=293 |
| Economy/Jobs/Unemployment | 9% | 7% |
| Education | 5% | 8% |
| Healthcare | 30% | 36% |
| Immigration | 4% | 5% |
| Environment | 11% | 17% |
| Social Security | 8% | 4% |
| Foreign Policy | 2% | <1% |
| Terrorism | 2% | 3% |
| Something Else | 4% | 6% |
| Coronavirus | 2% | 2% |
| Gun Policy | 1% | <1% |
| Donald Trump | 16% | 8% |
| Racism/Bigotry | 1% | 1% |
| All of the Above | 2% | 2% |
| Don’t Know | 4% | 2% |
Some Democrats prefer a candidate who represents their views most closely. Others prefer a candidate they believe is best able to defeat Donald Trump. Which is more important to you in determining your vote?
| Answer Choices | Likely Voters n=1,237 |
| Someone who represents your views | 29% |
| Someone who is best able to defeat Donald Trump | 68% |
| Don’t Know | 4% |
So far, do you think the 2020 Democratic Presidential campaign is taking the Democratic party in a direction that is…
| Answer Options | Likely Voters n=1,235 |
| Too liberal | 13% |
| Too moderate | 14% |
| About right | 58% |
| Other | 4% |
| Don’t Know | 12% |
Survey Demographics
What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
| Answer Options | Florida Voters n=1,473 |
| Less than High School Degree | 3% |
| High School Graduate | 19% |
| Some College | 40% |
| College Graduate | 20% |
| Postgraduate | 19% |
| Age | Florida Voters n=1,508 |
| 18-24 | 2% |
| 25-34 | 8% |
| 35-44 | 9% |
| 45-54 | 12% |
| 55-64 | 21% |
| 65 and older | 48% |
| Race | Florida Voters n=1,508 |
| White (Not Hispanic) | 56% |
| Black (Not Hispanic) | 28% |
| Hispanic | 12% |
| Other | 4% |
| Sex | Florida Voters n=1,508 |
| Male | 37% |
| Female | 63% |
| Telephone | Florida Voters n=1,488 |
| Landline | 32% |
| Cellphone | 68% |
| Refusal | <1% |
Methodology
The UNF Florida Statewide Democratic Primary Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida Thursday, March 5 through Tuesday, March 10, 2020 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m. daily with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. The sample frame was comprised of 1,502 registered likely Democratic voters in Florida, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were determined through vote history (those who voted in the 2016 Democratic primary or the 2018 Democratic primary) and a self-identified likelihood to vote. All voters who were 20 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they may not have been eligible to vote previous elections. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would “definitely vote,” “probably vote,” or “already voted” in the upcoming Florida Democratic Primary Election qualified to participate in the survey. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the February 2020 update of the Florida voter file. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in Spanish and English. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system.
The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cellphone was 32% to 68%, with less than 1% unidentified. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cellphone. Data were then weighted by age, race, sex, and education. Education weights were created from the Census’ 2018 American Community Survey (ACS) estimate for the percent of college-educated individuals in the state of Florida. Respondents ages 18 to 24 were not weighted by education, given that they are not included in the ACS estimates for college education. Age, sex, and race weights were created from the February update of the Florida Voter File to match the registered Democratic likely voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. To ensure a representative sample of registered voters, the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMAs) were stratified. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County’s unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate number of completed surveys from across the state.
All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 26 rake weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. In this case, respondents missing a response for any of the demographic information were given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 16% response rate. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.
The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social, and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL’s goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.
[1] Candidates listed in the survey were ordered as on a potential ballot: alphabetically by last name