The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab released a new poll Thursday morning on a variety of issues that include the proposed half-cent Duval County Public Schools sales tax and the 4th Congressional District race between Republican incumbent John Rutherford and Democratic challenger Donna Deegan. | Read story coverage
Survey Results
As you may know, there is a presidential election coming up on November 3rd. How likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters n=551 |
| You will definitely vote | 90% |
| You will probably vote | <1% |
| You will probably not vote | – |
| You will definitely not vote | 1% |
| Already voted | 8% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% |
If the election for Representative in U.S .Congress were held today and the candidates were John Rutherford for the Republican Party and Donna Deegan for the Democratic Party, who would you vote for? [Congressional District 4 Only]Answer Choices CD 4 Likely Voters n=863 John Rutherford, REP 57% Donna Deegan, DEM 38% Someone Else 3% Wouldn’t Vote 2% Don’t Know/Refusal <1%
If the November 2020 general election were held today, and the following measures were on the ballot, how would you vote:
School District of Duval County, Florida Surtax Referendum
School Capital Outlay Sales Surtax to Improve Safety and the Learning Environment To upgrade aging schools through repairs and modernization, to keep schools safe and to continue to promote a conducive learning environment, to improve technology, and to replace existing or build new schools, and share with charter schools for their allowable uses, shall the Duval County School Board be authorized to levy a 15-year half-cent sales surtax, with expenditures based upon the Surtax Capital Outlay Plan, and monitored by an independent citizens committee?
| Answer Choices | Duval Voters June[1] n= 2,253 | Duval Likely Voters October n=545 |
| For the calf-cent tax | 69% | 69% |
| Against the half-cent tax | 32% | 28% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | – | 3% |
JEA Referendum
Amending Jacksonville Charter, Granting City Council Authority to Appoint and Remove Four JEA Board Members
Shall the Jacksonville Charter be amended to create a new Section 4.03 and amend Section 21.03 which will (1) grant to City Council the executive power to appoint and remove four members of the JEA Board and (2) amend the qualifications of Board members?
This Charter amendment, if implemented, will have no impact on revenues and like the current selection process may have a minimal, or immeasurable, impact on costs to the City of Jacksonville.
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| Yes | 76% |
| No | 20% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 4% |
Below is a list of people, please select whether you approve or disapprove of the job each are doing.
Mayor Lenny Curry:
| Answer Choices | Duval Voters June[2] n=2,489 | Duval Likely Voters October n=545 |
| Strongly Approve | 17% | 22% |
| Somewhat Approve | 28% | 25% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 24% | 28% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 25% | 21% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 6% | 4% |
Sherriff Mike Williams:
| Answer Choices | Duval Voters June[3] n=2,470 | Duval Likely Voters October n=545 |
| Strongly Approve | 20% | 29% |
| Somewhat Approve | 24% | 25% |
| Somewhat Disapprove | 16% | 22% |
| Strongly Disapprove | 21% | 18% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | 19% | 5% |
Do you think Florida is moving too slowly or too quickly to ease social distancing restrictions and reopen, or is it about right?
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| Too Quickly | 55% |
| Too Slowly | 17% |
| About Right | 28% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% |
What is a bigger concern for you, the public health impacts or the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic?
| Answer Choices | Duval Voters April[4] n= 381 | Duval Voters June[5] n= 2,493 | Duval Likely Voters October n=545 |
| Public health impacts | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Economic impacts | 30% | 40% | 37% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% | – | 1% |
Do you agree or disagree that face masks work to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus?
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| Strongly Agree | 63% |
| Somewhat Agree | 21% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 8% |
| Strongly Disagree | 9% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | – |
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing Jacksonville?
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters n=508 |
| Education | 12% |
| Economy/Jobs | 7% |
| Access to healthcare | 1% |
| Crime | 30% |
| Improving downtown area | 8% |
| Race relations | 10% |
| Improving transportation and infrastructure | 8% |
| Reducing tax burden | 3% |
| Access to public transportation | 1% |
| Improving the environment | 1% |
| Improving storm infrastructure and drainage | 2% |
| Countywide high-speed internet | <1% |
| COVID-19 | 5% |
| Access to housing | 3% |
| Corruption in local government | 1% |
| Something else | 8% |
In general, do you think the police in Jacksonville can be trusted to do the right thing:
| Answer Choices | Duval Voters, June[6] n=2,492 | Duval Likely Voters, October n=545 |
| All of the time | 8% | 13% |
| Most of the time | 46% | 52% |
| Some of the time | 29% | 28% |
| Not very often at all | 17% | 7% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | – | 1% |
Do you agree or disagree that black people and white people receive equal treatment from the police?
| Answer Choices | Duval Voters, June[7] n= 2,459 | Duval Likely Voters, October n=545 |
| Strongly Agree | 15% | 22% |
| Somewhat Agree | 21% | 15% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 19% | 14% |
| Strongly Disagree | 45% | 49% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | – | <1% |
Do you agree or disagree that Hispanic people and white people receive equal treatment from the police?
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| Strongly Agree | 22% |
| Somewhat Agree | 18% |
| Somewhat Disagree | 18% |
| Strongly Disagree | 42% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | <1% |
Do you think the deaths of black people during encounters with the police are isolated incidents or signs of a broader problem of systemic racism?
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters, June[8] n=2,452 | Duval Likely Voters, October n=545 |
| Isolated incidents | 41% | 41% |
| Signs of a broader problem of systemic racism | 59% | 58% |
| Don’t Know/Refusal | – | <1% |
Survey Demographics
What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
| Answer Choices | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| Less than High School Degree | <1% |
| High School Graduate | 6% |
| Some College | 66% |
| College Graduate | 18% |
| Postgraduate | 9% |
| Age | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| 18-24 | 8% |
| 25-34 | 20% |
| 35-44 | 16% |
| 45-54 | 16% |
| 55-64 | 18% |
| 65 and older | 22% |
| Race | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| White (Not Hispanic) | 61% |
| Black (Not Hispanic) | 28% |
| Hispanic | 5% |
| Other | 7% |
| Sex | Duval Likely Voters n=545 |
| Male | 45% |
| Female | 55% |
Methodology
The UNF Fall Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion
Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Thursday, October 1 through Sunday, October 4, 2020. The survey was administered through email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform. The sample frame was comprised of 863 registered likely voters in Congressional District 4, and 545 registered likely voters in Duval County, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were determined a self-identified likelihood to vote. The email addresses used for this survey were sourced from the Florida’s Division of Elections October 2020 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among registered voters in the Florida voter file. A sample of Congressional District 4 was also used, including voters in Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties.
The margin of sampling error for the CD4 sample is +/-3.3 percentage points, and +/-4.2 percentage points for Duval County. Data were weighted by partisan registration, age, race, sex, education, geography and vote choice in 2016. Education weights were created from the Census’ 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) estimate for the percent of college-educated individuals in the state of Duval County. Partisan registration, sex, race, geographic and age weights were created from the October update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Florida.
There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 2.5% response rate. This survey was directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.
[1] conducted in June 2020
[2] Data from PORL’s Jax Speaks Survey conducted in June 2020
[3] conducted in June 2020
[4] Data from the PORL COVID-19 survey conducted in April 2020.
[5] conducted in June 2020
[6] Data from PORL’s Jax Speaks Survey conducted in June 2020
[7] Data from PORL’s Jax Speaks Survey conducted in June 2020
[8] conducted in June 2020